Presidential Election Forecast
For months, the U.S. Presidential race has been dominating our dinner conversations and newsfeeds. Campaign staff have worked hard to share their candidate’s policy decisions and hundreds of media interviews have been conducted. The election has even permeated consumer advertising strategies in clever campaigns like this one from Excedrin.
Yet, when it comes to voting, there is an often under-estimated player, the weather. Research shows that the weather impacts voter turnout in measurable ways and can even sway election results. Colder than average temperatures, ice, rain, and snow can swing close elections by keeping certain voting populations home more than others. For example, during bad weather research shows 35% of undecided voters will stay home because when travel is impeded they simply lack a passion for any particular candidate. The Weather Company study also showed that when the weather is poor, Republicans are more likely to vote, than Democrats.
Weather events impact voter behavior due to the logistics of traveling to voting locations in bad weather, but there is also an emotional impact of weather on voter mood. As humans our mood is affected by the weather. It can skew us to feel positive or negative, make us inclined to expend a little or a lot of energy and it can even open us to change, or focus us on seeking stable comfort.
Understanding that weather impacts voting outcomes provides an exciting opportunity for broadcasters, campaign leadership & marketers to capitalize on Election Day forecasts to optimize “get out the vote” communications.
The current forecast calls for no major storms and relatively easy travel to voting locations across the country. This bodes well for democrats whose constituents’ are more heavily impacted by poor weather conditions, than republican voters. For a full Election Day forecast visit us here.
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